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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
062136Z GPMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5
(45 TO 55 KNOTS) AND A 062145Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING SEVERAL
50 KNOT BARBS WITH ONE 55 KNOT BARB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 062340Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
(LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW
ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT TAU 60 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING JUST
ABOVE 125 KNOTS AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED
BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS
DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK AND
THE TIMING OF THE TURN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.







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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 166.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING
INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 070422Z LOW REFLECTIVITY COLOR-ENHANCED 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL
BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY
DURING RECURVATURE WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.








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Super Moderator
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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.5S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.5S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 7-NM PINHOLE EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 12P HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 45 TO 90 KNOTS)
WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5
(102 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT THE LOWER END OF
THESE ESTIMATES AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR EXTENSION WEAKENS FURTHER. AFTER TAU 24,
THE STR WILL RE-ORIENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, BASICALLY A HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO 125 KNOTS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
130 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU
48 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.







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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.3S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.1S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A PINHOLE EYE, SO THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE RAGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, INDICATING A PAUSE IN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 TO T5.5, JUSTIFYING AN
INTENSITY REMAINING AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SYSTEM AND TURNS IT SHARPLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, TC
12P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
INCREASES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU
72, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z, AND 090300Z.







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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.8S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DEEP
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A 080230Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
PHFO, KNES, NFFN, AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, TC 12P WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND JGSM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 48 THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//







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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.7S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.7S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P WHICH NO LONGER HAS AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 081200Z HIMAWARI
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE A 080800Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 84 KNOTS AND BELOW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 12P ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TC 12P WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LESS AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS LEADING TO A WIDER SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.









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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME
INDICATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 082244Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE AND
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS BASED ON WEAKENING CONVECTION AND DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T4.5 AND T5.0 (77 TO 90 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST(28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 12P
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY UNTIL TAU 24
WHEN INCREASING VWS BEGINS TO WEAKEN IT MORE RAPIDLY. BY TAU 36, TC
12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND AFUM WHICH SUGGEST A MORE EASTWARD TRACK FROM
TAU 36 TO 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ITS PERSISTENT
LACK OF MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.








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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
PARTIAL 091112Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS BUT CONTINUES ALONG A WEAKENING TREND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 090746Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE VWS (UP TO 90 KNOTS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36,
TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 48 AS VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.








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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THERE IS WAVERING CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE DECOUPLING OF THE BULK CONVECTION FROM
THE LOWER LEVELS. A 092036Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYE
FEATURE NOW NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
80 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE HEDGING ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WARM NEAR 27C DEGREES BUT
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY POLEWARD OF 28 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 12P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF THE STR BY TAU 24.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24
TC 12P WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL COLD CORE SYSTEM. TC 12P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.








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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Final Warning

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) AND A 102205 METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF 50-
55 KNOTS WITH AN LLCC BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM
DUE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND DECREASING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES
ITS POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND WILL COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 28 FEET.








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