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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.0S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.4S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 156.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132016Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) T3.0 (45 KTS), WHICH ARE
BELOW A 131948Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THAT HAS AMPLIFIED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13P IS TRACKING
OVER WARM BUT DIMINISHING SSTS (27 TO 28C) AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE
AND LEADING TO THE DISSOLUTION OF ALL EVIDENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
CYCLONE. TC 13P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN TURN SOUTH
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, TC 13P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER
TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE HEDGED SLIGHTLY EAST
OF AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET SLOWER MOVING AND
WESTWARD MOVING OUTLIERS THAT DO NOT CAPTURE THE SOUTHWARD TURN.
OVERALL, JTWC HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AND DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD TURN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.







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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Final Warning

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 156.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 156.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.7S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 156.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, DECAYING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A PARTIAL 141108Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW REGION OF
35 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (35 TO 40
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 26C SST.
THEREFORE, TC 13P WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JTWC HAS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET.






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