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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...ROSA STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 113.1 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday, with a slower motion toward
the west-northwest on Friday and northwest on Saturday anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane by
late Thursday, with further strengthening possible through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 114.1W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.1 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue today with a slower motion toward the
west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane later today
or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 115.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 115.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, with a slower motion toward
the west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Friday, and Rosa is expected to become a major hurricane later
today or tonight. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). The Mexican Navy automated station on Clarion Island
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind
gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA BECOMES THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 116.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a
turn toward the north on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in
strength is forecast overnight, with some slow weakening anticipated
by Saturday, and a larger decrease in wind speed expected early next
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA NOW HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 117.5 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward
the north by Saturday night. By early next week, Rosa is forecast
to turn toward the north-northeast and increase its forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on
Saturday, but a steady weakening trend is anticipated to begin by
Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed by early
next week. On the forecast track the center of Rosa will be
approaching Baja California on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches from Baja California State into northwest Mexico from late
in the weekend into midweek with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches. For the Desert Southwest, amounts of 1 to 3 inches
with local amounts to 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the
deserts and landslides in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 118.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Pacific Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 118.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm late Sunday or on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall ac***ulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
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Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 118.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday morning. A north-northeastward motion is
expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will
then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall ac***ulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend
and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
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Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's
remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall ac***ulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 118.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 118.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall ac***ulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #11 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 117.3 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through Monday night
while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California
peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico
or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
ac***ulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday or
Monday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #12 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 116.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the
peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's
remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United
States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
ac***ulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread over
the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon
or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the
Baja California peninsula within the warning later today and then
move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California
tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the
Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
ac***ulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in
portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #14 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 115.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.1 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the
coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into
the northern Gulf of California. Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
ac***ulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near
the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula
into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants
are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions of
the warning area, especially over higher elevations. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Final Warning

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rosa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 114.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rosa were located near
latitude 29.7 North, longitude 114.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and they are expected to
move over the Desert Southwest by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
ac***ulations into Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For more information please see products
issued by your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/refresh/EP202018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/023712.png
 
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