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Discussion Starter · #21 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 126.1 West. Sergio is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. The hurricane is forecast to slow down and make a
sharp northeastward turn on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 34...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Corrected to change a word in the headline

...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 127.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). Sergio is expected to
slow down and turn northward by tonight, and then turn northeastward
on Monday. A faster northeastward motion is anticipated by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next few
days, but Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane into
mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #23 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...SERGIO BARELY MOVING BUT FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 127.9W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 127.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the northeast is
anticipated by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #24 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 128.1 West. Sergio is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast
is expected tonight, and that motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving
toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
northward or northeastward drift is expected today and tonight,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days, and Sergio is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #26 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northeast is expected tonight, and this general motion should
continue during the next several days with an increase in forward
speed commencing on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #27 ·
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 127.4 West. Sergio is moving
toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward
motion is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 · (Edited)
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Discussion Starter · #29 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.1 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.








https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #30 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on
later tonight or Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual
weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move
into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #31 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 120.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.
Sergio is forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as
a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through
Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
6 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #32 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio
has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the
northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This track with a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be
near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or
early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but
Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should
then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja
California peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early
Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico
late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Super Moderator
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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #33 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland
northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin later tonight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression before reaching
Sonora.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
ac***ulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

Storm total ac***ulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6
inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from
this weekend into Monday. This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later
tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the
coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.







https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 

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Super Moderator
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26,613 Posts
Discussion Starter · #34 ·
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 53...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of
Discussion and Outlook

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.

Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of
Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern
Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and
degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.
Dissipation should occur on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the
Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as
Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland
Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain ac***ulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain ac***ulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are
already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/024032.png
 
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